Will the us be the top oil producer in 5 years?

Most of the new oil production projects in the US are expensive compared to the rigs already in place and production in the Middle East. If natural gas production does significantly increase then this will exert downward pressure on oil prices, likely halting many of the proposed new drilling projects in the US (as has been the case with the tar sands)

Unlike many foreign oil producing countries (Venezuela, Mexico, etc) that due to government interference continue to under-invest in the energy sector, the US has done a good job of investing in this sector, driving innovation and consistently finding new avenues for growth.

Most of the oil out of the middle east has a cos of $10-20/BBL to produce, so Saudia Arabia will be the global low cost supplier for many decades (unless you believe the conspiracy theory that thier reserves are vastly inflated). That said, U.S.-developed shale technology (which is a collection of different tools, equipment, and methods) is only abouy 20 years old, with the real ramp up in activity starting in 2003/2004. The buidlout of capacity, and ongoing technical improvements, should spure furhter cost reduction and volume growth.

The Obama administration during its second term is likely to propose stronger regulation on the energy sector. The new regulation will raise production and exploration costs, limit the available areas to drill and constrict the technologies which can be used for such production.

The Saudi's, concerned about US production, may try to reduce oil prices by significantly increasing production. Lower oil prices would kill US shale production.